Application of Bayes' rule to the use of clinical symptoms as a diagnostic test for variegate porphyria in a European population
| Disease prevalence in the population | 0.000007 |
| Sensitivity of clinical symptoms as a diagnostic tool | 0.4 (40%) |
| Specificity of clinical symptoms as a diagnostic tool | 0.5 (50%) |
| Probability that a positive test is a true positive | 0.00056% |
| Probability that a positive test is a false positive | 99.99944% |