Abstract

Aim: To establish independent prognostic factors on a chromosomal basis in superficial bladder cancer, using a multicolour fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) probe mix.

Patients and methods: In 2002, voided urine from 75 consecutive patients (mean age 71.7, range 52–93) years under follow-up for superficial urothelial cancer was studied prospectively. The patients were observed for a mean (standard deviation (SD)) period of 39.3 (6.8) months (range 27–58) until July 2005. A multicolour FISH on liquid-based voided urinary cytology was carried out on all patients. Univariate analysis, using a log rank test, was used to determine the prognostic relevance of a low-risk pattern and a high-risk pattern. Progression-free survival time was calculated from the date of first diagnosis to first recurrence or progression according to the Kaplan–Meier product-limit method.

Results: One patient was lost to follow-up. 27 of the 74 remaining (36.8%) patients showed recurrent disease. In 9 (33.3%) patients with a low-risk pattern disease recurred after a mean (SD) observation time of 29.7 (1.9) months (range 8.3–52.3, median 30.8 (12.4)). 18 (66.7%) patients with a high-risk pattern developed recurrence within a mean (SD) of 17.6 (2.0) months (range 4–38.8, median 16.7 (11.6)). The Kaplan–Meier curve for progression-free survival showed marked differences between the low-risk and the high-risk groups.

Conclusion: Patients with a high-risk chromosomal pattern have a markedly shorter disease-free survival time and higher progression rate than patients with a low-risk pattern. High-risk patients can therefore be treated more aggressively to prevent tumour spreading.